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Sun causing global warming
Global warming predictions
Ozone hole opens over city
Northern forests
not answer
Dams add to global warming!
Two thirds of all plant species extinct by 2100
Environment
takes millions of years to recover from extinction of a species
Mega cities create own climate
Peruvian study of disease increase with global
warming
Cost of global warming far exceeds third
world debt
More trees not solution
Ecuador protects trees
Methane consuming bacteria dying off
Air pollution effects weather
Vapour trails from aeroplanes contribute to global
warming
A natural solar event
New data from the European Space Agency’s Soho satellite suggests
that changes in the sun are probably the principal cause of global warming.
• The radiation from the sun has increased far more than estimated
• The strength of the sun’s magnetic field has doubled, reducing
the cosmic rays which help to form clouds, thereby allowing more heat
to reach the Earth’s surface
• There has been a 3% increase in UV light emitted from the sun.
The scientists predict a 2oC increase in average global temperatures by
2001 and accept other scientists’ predictions of the catastrophic
implications. Whilst accepting that reducing pollution might be a good
idea for other reasons, Paul Brekke, Soho’s deputy project scientist,
doubts that human action will have much effect in reducing global warming
itself.
(7231-32) Jonathan Leake. Times 24.9.00
p9
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Upping the anti
Specially commissioned for the Hague climate talks, East Anglia’s
Jackson Environment Istitute report on the possible effects of global
warming on Europe included many dire predictions. Amongst these were suggestions
that:
• the Mediterranean will lose many of its beaches, the Alps their
glaciers and much of their snow
• hot summers will double in frequency (in Spain they will increase
fivefold) by 2020, causing many deaths in more vulnerable people
• the ability to grow some agricultural crops will move an average
30 miles north each decade, (Ed.- possibly leading to huge shifts in economic
power. The USA, for instance, could see its ability to grow wheat for
export disappear whilst currently-frozen Siberia becomes a major wheat
exporter.)
• many species of fish and coastal birds will become extinct
• there will be insufficient water in southern Europe to grow sufficient
levels of crops for supermarkets in northern Europe.
On the plus side:
• colder winters will be half as frequent by 2020 and eventually
disappear altogether except in the far north of Europe, resulting in lower
heating bills. Sadly, even this has a downside - more insects bearing
diseases.
(7496-98) Paul Brown. Guardian Online
2.11.00
City bathed in ultraviolet
The hole in the ozone layer over the Antarctic reached record proportions
in September 2000 and opened up over a city - Punta Arenas in Chile -
for the first time. The city was unprotected against ultraviolet light
for two days. Some scientists now predict that the hole will soon open
over Argentina, Australia, New Zealand and Southern Africa.
(7361) New Scientist 14.10.00 p21
Northern forests not answer
Global warming experts now realise that reforesting all parts of the globe is not necessarily going to reduce global warming. Whereas new forests in temperate and tropical climes will reduce warming overall, new forests in the far north are likely to make it worse. The new trees do indeed absorb carbon dioxide, but they also absorb heat from the sun which would normally be reflected away by snow-covered tundra.
(6659) New Scientist
13.5.00 p19
Damn it!
Hydroelectricity has generally been considered a clean, green technology - but no longer. The World Commission on Dams, a group of scientists, engineers and environmentalists supported by the World Bank, has reported that many dams emit more greenhouse gases than large coal-fired power stations. Dams creating large stagnant lakes are the worst because vegetation washed into them from upstream decays and produces methane, 20 times more ‘global warming’ than carbon dioxide. One example is the Balbina Dam in Brazil, whose shallow warm waters generate especially high amounts of methane, produces ten times the amount of methane and CO2 as a coal-fired power station producing the same amount of electricity (112 megawatts/year).
(6998-99) Fred Pearce. New Scientist 3.6.00 p4
Plants on the edge
“If no action is taken now, one third of all plant species will be extinct or en route to extinction by the middle of this century and two thirds by 2100.”
(6980) Peter Raven, director of the Missouri Botanical Gardens
Irreparable
. . .
Anne Weil, a research associate at Duke University (US), has calculated that it takes life on Earth about 10 million years to recover from the mass extinction of plant or animal species. It takes the environment almost as long to recover from the extinction of just a few species. Furthermore, it is unlikely that any species will evolve to become the same as before. Each extinction rips a hole in the biosphere which will eventually be covered over, but never repaired 'as new'.
(6533) Reuters News Service 13.3.00
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City
weather
The world's growing number of mega-cities could cause climate change. Atlanta (US), for example, whose growth has destroyed 55 acres of trees a day for the last twenty years, has become a 'heat island', with its own weather. On five out of nine days in Summer 1996 it triggered its own local thunderstorms. The general increase in temperatures means that more air conditioning is used, increasing the production of greenhouse gases. NASA scientist, Dr. Dale Quattrochi, believes that these 'heat islands' can be cooled by promoting energy efficiency, tree planting, and installing reflective materials on roofs to stop buildings heating up so much in the summer.
Although the area's higher than average temperatures have lengthened the growing season, satellite studies have detected reduced food-growing capacity by 20 days a year around Atlanta. NASA's Dr. Marc Imhoff estimates that 3% of the US and Europe now counts as 'urban sprawl', which could have a huge impact as cities tend to site on the most productive land. He comments, "If the capacity of the landscape to carry out photosynthesis is substantially reduced, the ability of the planet to support human life must also be diminished".
(6534-35) Tim Radford. Guardian 23.2.00 p7
Although under great pressure from multinational corporations to cash in on the saleable assets of the rainforest, the Ecuadorian Government has taken the long term view and declared more than a million hectares in the Tagarei and Cuyabeno regions "protected areas in perpetuity". Rainforests are crucial to the local and global environment because they produce oxygen and absorb carbon dioxide. In this case they also shelter the as yet uncontacted Huaorani tribe.
Several NGOs have suggested that people may wish to send their thanks and appreciation to the Ecuadorian Government. The best contact would be: Dr. Jamil Mahuad, Prime Minister, Ecuador Government, Quito, Ecuador.
(6373-74) Positive News 1.3.00 p7
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Hotting it up
Predictions that global warming could lead to increases in diseases receive support from a Peruvian study. Comparing hospital admissions for diarrhoea to daily ambient temperatures, the researchers found an average 8% increase in admissions for every 1°C rise in temperature. When the annual 'El Nino' episode kicked in (a particularly warm sea current) ambient temperatures rose 5°C on some days, doubling the number of admissions for diarrhoea.
(6422) Checkley,W et al. Lancet 2000;355:442-50
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Who
owes who?
A new report from Christian Aid, Who owes who: climate change, debt, equity and survival, concludes that the total amount owed (£200 billion) to more industrially developed countries (MIDCs) by less industrially developed countries (LIDCs), is dwarfed by the potential cost of damage inflicted on them by the global warming activities of these same MIDCs (£612 billion). It therefore calls for all 'Third World Debt' to be written off, rather than the partial write off proposed in September '99 by the G8's Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative. Per capita, MIDCs produce 62 times as much carbon dioxide whilst LIDCs are most at risk from climate change. 1998 was the worst year on record for natural disasters suffered by LIDCs. Bangladesh and China had their worst floods in living memory whilst Hurricane Mitch set Nicaragua and Honduras' development back decades. The latter two both make heavy debt repayments.
(5672-73) Diane Coyle. Independent 20.9.99 p15The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that massive tree-planting to absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) will at best only buy time and, at worst, accelerate global warming. It claims that the new trees will soon be saturated with CO2 and start returning most of it to the atmosphere. Although trees absorb carbon dioxide through photosynthesis, they also release it back into the air when plant matter breaks down the sugars they have made. This is called 'respiration', and respiration increases in response to temperature rises, which are triggered by rises in CO2 levels.
Scientists fear that recent rises in temperatures may cause respiration to accelerate, turning forests from 'carbon sinks' into carbon (dioxide) sources. Scientists had not spotted this possibility before because, although CO2 take up is instantaneous, the warming which triggers respiration has a built-in delay of around 50 years due to the slow warming of the oceans. Planting trees, therefore, may buy a little time now but cause very serious problems downstream. The only solution is to reduce carbon emissions themselves.
(5946-48) Alex Kirby. BBC News 20.10.99
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Chemical warming
Nearly half of the world's emissions of methane - one cause of global warming - are produced from bacteria living in wetlands in the northern hemisphere. Scientists had assumed until recently that these acidic environments only bred bacteria which gave off methane but the recent discovery that some European wetlands only produce half the methane expected has also led to the discovery of one bacterium which actually consumes the gas. The problem is that this bacterium is dying off, thanks to increasing human emissions of nitrates and sulphates, further increasing the overall levels of methane emitted by wetlands!
Ed.- This may be a classic example of human activity disrupting the delicate balance of the Earth's eco-systems. Could it be that, only fifty or so years ago, most wetlands were methane-neutral?
(5382-83) New Scientist 20.3.99 p13
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Seeding rain clouds
Arizona State University researchers believe they may have spotted a link between weather and air pollution. They noticed that the US Atlantic coast gets more rain, hurricanes and cyclones on weekdays, when air pollution is higher, and fewer at weekends, when air pollution drops.
(5151) Cerveny et al. Nature 6.8.98
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Vapour
trails
Carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide from aircraft have long been recognised as contributors to both global warming and the destruction of the ozone layer. Now scientists are concerned that condensation vapour trails can freeze in the cold upper air and become thin lines of cloud similar to cirrus cloud. Cirrus cloud traps heat and may make a significant contribution to global warming. In areas with heavy air traffic the effect may be magnified.
Commercial and military aircraft emit an estimated 230m tonnes of water vapour annually. 40% of this is discharged in the mid latitudes of the northern hemisphere at cruising altitudes of about 10km. If the scientists are right the problem will escalate rapidly as air traffic is forecast to double within 15 years.
(1948-49) Fred Pearce. New Scientist 29.3.97 p5
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